Labour aren't going to roll over and die

Any Tories who think that the election is all in the bag or there will definitely be a hung Parliament are severely mistaken. Yesterday's Queen's Speech marked a fight back by New Labour and signalled that there is still all to play for.

The Prime Minister also gave a hugely confident performance in the Commons. It seems that Labour looked over the abyss during the summer and are now making every effort to move away and renew the party for victory once again.

John Reid's "tough on terrorists and tough on the causes of terrorism" plays well in many marginal seats with significant working class populations. The Government's new confrontation with radical Islam also works well in these types of constituency.

Moreover, the Queen's Speech contained important social justice legislation including pension reform and free bus passes, guaranteed to help buttress the all important pensioner votes.

Of courser the corollary to all this is that there is massive scepticism across the country as to whether Labour can deliver. There is huge disenchantment about Tony Blair and continued opposition to the war in Iraq. Mr Blair also overdid it in the Commons when he talked of Mr Cameron being knocked out by a huge giant fist (in the shape of Gordon Brown). This is very much 80's style confrontational politics, and a complete turn off to the voters.

The Conservatives however seem ready for the Blair/Reid/Brown assault on crime and terror. Senior Tory strategists, well aware of the Labour manoeuvres, planned an advance line of attack. Over the past week, in advance of the Queen's Speech, articles appeared by senior Conservatives (including David Cameron and Shadow Home Secretary David Davis), setting out the Conservative stall on migration, security, terrorism, and radical Islam. The Tory cry seems to be "tough on terrorism but tough on protecting our civil liberties". On this they are at one with virtually all the media - both left and right.

Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see how the opinion polls play themselves out over the coming months. If John Reid's "boot boy" approach on crime and terrorism works, will the Conservatives change tack and harden their policies in these areas? David Cameron said yesterday that he was offering "hope" over Labour's promotion of "fear" - a noble form of politics. Time will tell which approach the electorate prefer.

To read more by Watlington, see Watlington.