The Non Voting Floaters

For good reason, the Cameron Conservatives have been obsessed with wooing the floating voters. These are the members of the public, who constitute a significant number who vote for different political parties at most elections. Over the past three elections, the Tories have done miserably with this group, having only won over "the core vote". All the signs are that this strategy is working - and the Conservative rise in the opinion polls reflects this. Centrist voters are increasingly attracted to Mr Cameron and his emphasis on the environment and social action.

Yet recent weeks have shown a small but significant dip in Tory support - despite the fact that the Blair Government remains as unpopular as ever. There are increasing indications that the Conservative strategy is bypassing a significant and important group of the electorate that grow in number at every election. This segment is not core voters, nor floating voters. It is the section of the electorate that veer between voting and not voting. Stephan Shakespeare, the UK's premier pollster, describes this group as the "floating non voters".

These kind of voters have grown ever more cynical about politics, had great hopes in Tony Blair in the early days and now feel entirely disillusioned. They don't like the schmaltzy "celebrity" politics of the age. Often they are people on lower incomes, struggling to keep their heads above water, or small business men and women battling against red tape and high taxes. At every recent election, their numbers have grown as voter turnout has decreased. As yet, these floating non voters are not yet convinced about Mr Cameron and worry whether he represents more of the same. They wonder whether he really is "the heir to Blair". They also have complete contempt for what they see as politicians lining their own pockets with allowances and Ministers getting fancy country houses and such like.

For the Conservatives to reach out to this segment of the electorate, they have to do something substantial. Mr Cameron needs to convince the floating non voters that the Tories really are different and represent the anti-establishment, rather than the mainstream. The Conservatives need to stand for something that really resonates with this group of people, in such a way that they feel compelled to go out and vote. Of course there are no easy answers as to what this should be. But if the Tories pledged to get rid of grace and favour apartments (e.g. country homes for Ministers) and gave them to major charities, that would be a start. For the Conservatives to make headway with this group of voters, they need to show that the days of the privileged political classes are over. They must speak with real passion about what they want to achieve. Above all they need to reflect these voters' aspirations for a better quality of life.

To read more by Watlington, see Watlington.