What is the UKIP threat?

Is the UKIP threat to the Conservative Party real? Certainly in public the Tory high command are pretty relaxed. In a private presentation to MPs yesterday by Conservative Party staffers, polling data was set out suggesting that five times as many voters are potentially likely to move from the Conservatives to the Liberal Democrats rather than to UKIP.

Indeed, the Conservatives see the Lib Dems as the main threat at the forthcoming local elections - UKIP barely register on the Richter scale. Hence the strong Tory campaigns against ID cards and in favour of civil liberties (launched by David Davis). MPs were also told that polling evidence shows that civil liberties, (alongside the environment and education) are most likely to help the Tories take Lib Dem seats. In an election where almost half the Lib Dem Councillors across the country are up for re-election, this is something that cannot be ignored.

Private intelligence also suggests that despite the very public face of Nigel Farage, UKIP lacks resources and is beset with internecine squabbling of a Monty Python-esque variety. There is understood to be much bewilderment in UKIP circles at the decision to change its the name to 'The Independence Party'. The view is that the name 'UKIP' is seen by some as the party's strongest selling point: watering it down will confuse voters who are often confronted with voting for many 'independent' candidates of 'different' varieties.

As always there are caveats to this rosy scenario. UKIP remains strong in certain areas, particularly in Hertfordshire, Essex and the South West. Although UKIP nationally may not present a significant threat, in certain regions they can still play havoc with Conservative Candidates. It is worth remembering that UKIP are political fundamentalists. UKIP believe that only if they destroy the Conservative Party can a new 'true' right wing party emerge - no matter if a Euro-federalist Labour Government gets elected in the process. So even if they are going down, they are determined to try and take a few Tories down with them.

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