Tory news update: Liam Fox, No Tory complacency, the Middle East and domestic politics

Rumours about Liam Fox are greatly exaggerated
As talk of the Cameron reshuffle mounts, there are increasing rumours doing the rounds of Central Office that Shadow Defence Secretary Liam Fox will be moved and reappointed Party Chairman. The thinking is that Liam Fox is greatly popular with party activists and that his appointment would shore up the core vote. However, this is highly unlikely. First, Mr Fox did not enjoy being Party Chairman and it is understood that he would resist a move back to CCHQ with every being. Second, sources in the party indicate that Francis Maude is likely to stay on - he relished the job and is thought to have done a good job in reforming party structures, despite a wobbly moment during last Spring.

No Tory complacency
Despite the increasing poll leads and the accompanying favourable newspaper headlines, Tory senior Shadow Ministers do not have their heads in the clouds. Wiser heads who were around during the Thacher era noted the huge opinion poll leads enjoyed by Neil Kinnock, until there was an actual election when Thacher romped home. The biggest advantage of the poll lead is that it helps mollify the core vote and the Parliamentary Party, many of whom are willing to unite behind Cameron because he is seen as a winner. Tories are fed up with losing.

The Middle East and domestic politics
In Michael Cockerell's programme on Tony Blair last night there was a fascinating piece which showed an interview with Jack Straw. In essence Mr Straw argued that last September's coup against Tony Blair was in part inspired and triggered by Mr Blair's unflinching support for Israel in her war against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iain Duncan Smith had a similar problem. After he made a speech supporting Israel in Spring 2003, a number of Tory backbenchers made some serious criticisms – one of them being Crispin Blunt, who went to see IDS in his office. A weeks later (on the the day of the 2003 local elections), Mr Blunt resigned as a front bencher citing IDS's poor leadership. The rest is history. The question is, are Arabists determining who is Party Leader?

Ps: With the Liberal Democrats, there is no need to change leaders as Ming Campbell has been part of the Foreign Office Arabist world view for years. Indeed, his office was funded by "sources" from the Middle East for years (see: The Liberal Democrats and the Islamists).

To read more by Watlington, see Watlington.