The Iraq War and the Conservative Party

As the media mull over the 4th year anniversary of the Iraq war, it is worth considering the ramifications of the war on the British Conservative Party. Whilst the Iraq invasion destroyed Mr Blair's credibility with the public, and hugely split the Labour party, it has also had a serious effect on Conservative Party thinking.

Michael Howard now says privately that his one mistake as Leader was not to set out a coherent view of the Iraq war and to express Conservative opposition to the implementation of military plans following the toppling of Saddam Hussein. During the election, the Conservative position on Iraq veered towards support for a new interventionist doctrine called 'regime change plus' and calling Tony Blair a 'liar' on huge bill-boards. It was no wonder the public saw through the inconsistency and there was much criticism of the Tory position by commentators from all sides. Whilst senior neo-cons like Iain Duncan Smith and Liam Fox remain resolute in their support for the war, the fall out from Iraq and the public's hostility have led David Cameron to take a markedly more critical line and distance his party explicitly from the Bush Presidency.

As MPs like Michael Gove readily concede, David Cameron has his finger on the nation's pulse on this issue - more than he does - and it is therefore understandable why the Tories are now taking a more cautious line. Nevertheless, there remains a significant fault line within the Conservatives between those old fashioned Tory 'realists' (from the Hurdite/Rifkind school) and those Conservative Neo-Cons who believe firmly in promoting human rights and democracy with both hearts, minds and force if necessary. Whilst the realists may have the upper hand at the moment, it is noticeable that many of the new intake of MPs believe in intervention - and it is they who are likely to have the upper hand in years come.

To read more by Watlington, see Watlington.