Watch the Brownian outflanking with care

For a brief moment last week, it looked like the Conservatives had been flummoxed by Gordon Brown's income tax cut as they were both outflanked by Gordon Brown - and by the Liberals - who understood that Brown was abolishing the 10p starting rate. At a stroke, the Chancellor looked like aggravating the fault-line between the "tax cutters" and "stabilisers" inside the Conservative party as well as capturing favourable plaudits from Middle England. However, Shadow Chancellor George Osborne made a formidable recovery and convinced commentators and the public (witness the opinion polls over the weekend), that the Budget was a tax con not a tax break.

Nevertheless, although on this occasion the Budget has backfired on Gordon Brown, it has shown just how ruthless and determined he is to win. His actions show that the Tories have nothing to be complacent about. As Prime Minister, Mr Brown is bound to try and pull off similar strokes over the coming months and nakedly grab the territory of the right. Expect a Brown Premiership to be tough on defence (pro-Trident), tough on Islamism, tough on asylum and very tough on crime. He will also make a virtue of being attacked by Civil Servants (claiming as he did last week it was because of his Euro-scepticism and unwillingness to join the Euro). Don't expect Mr Brown to sign up to a new European Constitution either. David Cameron's Conservatives need to set out a coherent strategy to deal with being outflanked on the right. The last thing Mr Cameron needs is for the right of the party praising Mr Brown's policies over him (witness the Taxpayer's Alliance describing the Budget as George Osborne's first Budget), as the election draws nearer. If the Tories underestimate Gordon Brown's chameleon qualities, they will suffer some significant hits.

PS. Dennis MacShane in today's Telegraph is a sign of things to come. He accuses the Tories of being 'Statist' whilst, arguing that Mr Brown is all about radical reform and weakening the state.

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